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Well, it turned out to just be the video card. I probably cooked it by not blowing the dust out of the heatsink/fan for too long. Everything's clean now, and I've got an old PCI (not Express) card in, which is sort-of OK but I'm down to one monitor which is not good for a pixel junkie. Trouble is, by the time I get a new AGP card with dual DVI, I'm about a third of the way to a full brain transplant (new motherboard, memory, processor, PCI X video.) I'll have to think about it for a day or two.